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Weather pattern blamed for UK’s prolonged rainfall

As additional rainfall is predicted, BBC Weather’s Simon King examines the factors behind the exceptionally wet start to the year.

Flooding occurred in York on Monday as the River Ouse overflowed into the city.

A total of 100 areas across the UK are at risk of flooding due to intense rainfall, with the Met Office issuing yellow warnings for several regions.

A persistent weather pattern, which has remained stationary for several weeks, is the primary cause of the flooding, although a brief respite is expected before rain resumes.

As of 05:00 GMT on Tuesday, the Environment Agency reported 98 flood warnings and 170 flood alerts in England, with the already saturated ground and swollen rivers increasing the likelihood of further flooding.

In other parts of the UK, two flood warnings and four alerts are currently in place in Scotland, while Wales has five flood alerts, according to the latest updates.

The UK has experienced persistent overcast conditions and rainfall since the beginning of the year, resulting in ongoing flooding due to the excessive wet weather.

Certain areas, including Devon, Cornwall, and Worcestershire, have seen daily rainfall throughout the year so far.

A new wave of rain is expected to move into south-west England on Tuesday and then spread north-east, affecting various parts of England and Wales.

In eastern Scotland, the rain is forecast to continue uninterrupted, with two yellow warnings issued by the Met Office from 09:00 GMT on Tuesday to 23:59 on Wednesday, indicating a likelihood of flooding and some disruption to transportation.

The region has seen unusually high levels of rainfall this February, making it an exceptionally wet month so far.

The north-east of Scotland is experiencing a prolonged period of wet weather, with a sequence of blizzards, thaw, and persistent rainfall. This has raised questions about the underlying causes of the region's excessive moisture.

Figures from the Met Office, current up to 8 February, indicate that Aberdeen has received 180% of its typical monthly rainfall, almost doubling the average for this time of year.

Aboyne, located in Aberdeenshire, has seen a significant 376mm of rainfall, and is on track to exceed half of its annual total in the coming days, with additional precipitation forecasted.

In other parts of the country, such as Worcestershire and the Isle of Wight, the first week of February has already brought rainfall equivalent to the region's average for the entire month.

The current spell of wet weather follows a January that was characterized by above-average precipitation, contributing to the overall trend of unusually high rainfall levels.

Regions including south-west England, eastern Scotland, and Northern Ireland experienced notably high levels of rainfall, with Cornwall and County Down seeing their highest January rainfall totals on record.

A persistent high-pressure system over Scandinavia has been preventing low-pressure systems from progressing eastward, affecting the UK and western Europe.

The UK and western Europe have been experiencing a prolonged period of unsettled weather, characterized by low-pressure systems that are slow to move, resulting in extended periods of rain and overcast conditions.

The root cause of this phenomenon is a stationary high-pressure system over Scandinavia, which is obstructing the normal eastward movement of weather systems, leading to an abnormal stagnation of weather patterns.

This type of "blocked" weather pattern, while not unusual, has had significant impacts on the UK in recent months, making it a notable event so far this year.

The formation of blocked weather patterns can vary in appearance based on the location where extensive high-pressure systems become stationary.

When a high-pressure system becomes anchored over the United Kingdom, it prevents the arrival of weather systems carrying rainfall, resulting in an extended period of dry conditions.

During the summer months, this phenomenon can contribute to drought conditions and heatwaves, as warm air from the southeast is drawn into the region.

In contrast, during the winter season, the blocked high-pressure system can lead to dry, sunny, and cold weather conditions.

Nonetheless, minor shifts in the position of these systems can have a significant impact on the resulting weather patterns.

During winter months, a blocking high positioned to the north of the UK can lead to an influx of cold air from northeastern Europe, mirroring the conditions seen during the "Beast from the East" event in 2018.

The primary driver behind blocking patterns is the fluctuation in the jet stream, a high-altitude wind current.

Under typical circumstances, the jet stream traverses the Atlantic from west to east, with minor deviations along its path giving rise to various weather systems.

At times, these minor deviations can amplify, resulting in significant bends in the jet stream's flow, analogous to the meandering path of a river.

When such large bends occur, high-pressure systems can become trapped beneath them, causing the jet stream to weaken and become disrupted.

When high pressure systems intensify and persist, they can prevent low pressure systems from advancing, leading to prolonged periods of similar weather conditions in a given area, often lasting for days or even weeks.

The persistence of blocked patterns is not indefinite, as they can be disrupted by an increase in jet stream energy or the emergence of more powerful low pressure systems that are able to overcome the high pressure.

A temporary improvement in weather is expected on Saturday, with many areas experiencing clearer skies and more sunshine.

Indications suggest that the current blocked pattern may begin to dissipate by the end of the week, potentially leading to a change in weather conditions.

On Saturday, a low pressure system is forecast to move eastward, resulting in a shift in wind direction to a more northerly flow.

A shift in the weather pattern is expected to bring cooler temperatures and scattered wintry showers, but overall, conditions will be drier and sunnier for most areas compared to the previous weeks.

This respite from the rain will be short-lived, as another low-pressure system is forecast to move in by Sunday, accompanied by increasing winds.

As the rain interacts with the colder air mass that arrived on Saturday, a brief period of snow is anticipated to affect parts of northern England and Scotland, including lower-lying areas, on Sunday morning.

Looking ahead to next week, the outlook remains unstable, with additional rainfall expected, which may lead to localized flooding in some areas; for the most up-to-date and location-specific forecasts, visit the BBC Weather website and app regularly.

For a more in-depth look at the forecast beyond the short term, the monthly outlook provides further information and details on what to expect in the coming weeks.

BBC presenter Carol Kirkwood has made an emotional announcement regarding her departure from the network.

The coastline of south-west England is undergoing significant changes due to the intense winter storms that have been occurring in the region.

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Husband’s alleged £600k theft for sex and antiques blamed on drug side effects

A family has reportedly suffered severe repercussions from the side effects of a widely used Parkinson’s disease medication, according to the BBC.

A phone call at the start of her workday drastically altered Frances' life, setting off a chain of events that would have far-reaching consequences.

Andrew is wearing a blue polo shirt and spectacles. He in the shade, but it is a sunny day behind him. There are a few people visible in the background on the left-hand side of the image.
Solicitor Andrew had taken hundreds of thousands of pounds of his clients' money

The news that her husband, Andrew, a solicitor, had been taken into custody by police on allegations of defrauding clients sent shockwaves through their family, which included their two children.

The scene at Andrew's office, located in a village south of Manchester, resembled a crime scene from a television drama, with yellow tape cordoning off the area, staff members in a state of distress, and records being carefully packed away.

An investigation by police uncovered that Andrew had misappropriated hundreds of thousands of pounds from his clients, many of whom were elderly individuals with dementia, and had used the funds for adult webcam sites, sex workers, and antique purchases.

This incident occurred 12 years ago.

In the subsequent court proceedings, it was revealed that Andrew's impulsive behavior was linked to the medication he was taking for Parkinson's disease.

Thirteen of Andrew's clients were affected by his actions, with all but two being over the age of 80, and some suffering from poor health; collectively, they lost £600,000.

One of the victims, an 87-year-old woman residing in a care home, passed away shortly after the incident, and her estate lacked sufficient funds to cover her funeral expenses.

Reflecting on the experience, Frances expressed that people distanced themselves from their family, which she understood, while their daughter, Alice, noted that her father never forgave himself for his actions.

The consequences of Andrew's behavior ultimately proved tragic.

Although Andrew's case is extreme, it is not an isolated incident.

Over the past year, numerous families have come forward to share their experiences of how impulsive behaviors, triggered by dopamine agonist drugs, have devastated their lives.

These behaviors include the development of new sexual urges, such as addictions to pornography and sex workers, as well as compulsive shopping and gambling, resulting in significant financial losses.

Dopamine agonist drugs are a well-established treatment for conditions like Parkinson's disease and Restless Legs Syndrome, with 1.5 million prescriptions issued by GPs in England in the past year alone.

NHS guidelines advise individuals taking these medications to consult their doctor if they have any concerns.

According to a 2010 study involving over 3,000 participants, one in six Parkinson's patients taking dopamine agonist drugs experience impulse control disorders.

In response to the investigation, the chair of the MPs' Health Select Committee described the findings as "devastating" and has written to the UK drugs regulator to request a review of official warnings.

Many of the individuals interviewed reported having no history of impulsive behavior before taking the medication and failed to recognize the connection between their actions and the drugs.

They alleged that doctors failed to provide adequate warnings or monitor the effects of the medication.

The weekend following Andrew's arrest, he attempted to maintain a brave facade for his family, but he collapsed at home and was taken to the emergency room.

Andrew, in dark trousers and a white T-shirt, sits on garden steps with his toddler son Harry, who is wearing blue dungarees.
Family photo of Andrew with his son Harry, taken when Harry was a toddler

Andrew had been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease a few years prior, and when his symptoms worsened, he was prescribed Pramipexole, which had a "miraculous" effect, according to Frances.

Pramipexole and similar drugs function by increasing dopamine activity, a chemical that regulates movement and drives feelings of reward and pleasure.

Andrew's Parkinson's tremor significantly decreased, and he was able to resume playing tennis, according to his family.

However, during his emergency room visit, a doctor inquired whether Frances was aware that Pramipexole could cause impulsive behaviors in some individuals.

Frances expressed that this revelation was a "terrible shock," as she had attended all of Andrew's appointments without being informed of this potential side effect.

The possible side effects of the medication, she stated, finally explained Andrew's compulsive shopping, although at that point, she was unaware of the full extent of his spending.

Prior to his diagnosis, Andrew had used webcam and sex-chat sites approximately once a week, but in the year following his prescription, he made nearly 500 payments to these sites.

He spent over £100,000 on a single website using his clients' funds and nearly £80,000 on sex workers in just four months; at the time of his arrest, his mobile phone contained the numbers of 90 different escorts.

Andrew, an avid history enthusiast, also developed a compulsion for buying antique pens, pottery, and cricket memorabilia, spending £85,000 on eBay in the six months leading up to the police raid.

According to Alice, her father became withdrawn and ashamed after his arrest, rarely leaving the house.

The family waited for over a year to hear from prosecutors, and ultimately, Andrew was charged with fraud.

Frances noted that their son, Harry, who struggled with mental health issues, found the aftermath of his father's arrest particularly challenging to cope with.

Harry's mental health deteriorated to the point where he was sectioned, and after returning home, he disappeared; his body was later discovered, and it was determined that he had taken his own life.

In 2015, Andrew pleaded guilty in court, and during sentencing, the judge stated that he had squandered his clients' money on "sexual excesses" and "absurd extravagances."

The judge believed that Andrew's behavior was caused by the medication but argued that, as a solicitor, he should have been able to recognize the effects of the drugs and sought help from his family, friends, or advisors.

Andrew was sentenced to four years in HM Prison Manchester.

During the investigation, all of Andrew's assets were frozen to recover some of the stolen funds.

The family was unable to pursue a clinical negligence case against Andrew's doctors due to legal rules that bar the recovery of damages related to serious criminal acts.

Red-brick prison building - with various wings emerging from a central tower. There is another much taller tower to the left of the image - and a high perimeter walls encircling the complex.
Andrew spent two years of his four year sentence in HM Prison Manchester

Frances and Andrew divorced while he was in prison, and upon his release, he moved into sheltered accommodation.

Two years after being jailed, Andrew was released from prison, marking a new chapter in his life.

Andrew's family reports that his time in prison, compounded by the Covid lockdowns, had a profound impact on him. After discontinuing his dopamine agonist medication, his Parkinson's symptoms worsened significantly.

According to Alice, Andrew's life was severely disrupted, with the Parkinson's diagnosis and medication playing a significant role in this deterioration.

In October 2020, Andrew took his own life, a tragic event that has had a lasting impact on those who knew him.

The UK's Yellow Card scheme, which tracks adverse drug reactions, does not include Andrew's death, nor that of his son Harry, in its public record.

The broader consequences of dopamine agonist drugs on families, including financial losses and other forms of collateral damage, are not accounted for in official records.

Many individuals affected by these drugs have found it challenging to seek justice due to the difficulties in pursuing class actions or clinical negligence cases in the UK.

It has been over two decades since the link between dopamine agonist drugs and impulsive behavior was first identified.

A BBC investigation revealed that GSK, the company that initially licensed these drugs for Parkinson's treatment in the UK, was aware of a connection between its medication and "deviant" sexual behavior as early as 2003.

Layla has dark hair and dark-rimmed glasses, and wears a pink jacket. The background is out of focus. There is a shelf filled with books and a vase in the top right of the image.
Liberal Democrat MP, Layla Moran, has written to the UK drugs regulator asking it to bolster warnings

Patient information leaflets were updated three years later to include warnings about increased libido and harmful behavior, but they do not provide information on the frequency of impulse control disorders.

Layla Moran, chair of the MPs' Health Select Committee, is advocating for more detailed warnings that specify the types of behaviors associated with impulse control disorders and their frequency.

Moran emphasizes that the impact of these side effects extends beyond the individual, affecting families and communities and creating new challenges.

Moran argues that patients need clear information about the risks of impulsive behavior, including its likelihood and potential consequences, in order to make informed decisions.

The MHRA's Yellow Card scheme has been criticized by Moran for being inadequate for reporting sensitive side effects.

The government has expressed concern about the findings, acknowledging the seriousness of the issue.

However, the MHRA has stated that it does not plan to revise the warnings, citing the individualized nature of these behaviors.

The agency has previously noted that many cases of impulse control disorders go unreported, making it challenging to determine their frequency.

GSK has defended its drug, citing extensive clinical trials and regulatory approvals, and stating that it has shared safety concerns with regulators.

Boehringer Ingelheim, the manufacturer of Pramipexole, the drug prescribed to Andrew, declined to comment.

In 2017, NICE introduced guidelines requiring doctors to inform Parkinson's patients and their families about the risks of impulsive behaviors and to monitor their development regularly.

Despite these guidelines, some patients have reported that they were not adequately warned about the risks, and many continue to experience impulsive behaviors.

Alice and Frances have relocated to a new area, but the pain of their experiences remains a significant challenge for them.

Frances reflects on the devastating impact of her experiences, including the loss of her home, community, and son.

She struggles to find the words to express the depth of her emotional pain.

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Farage Says Reform to Replace Traditional Tory Party

Farage expressed little astonishment that Conservative MPs were defecting to Reform, citing the latter’s greater dynamism.

Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, has stated that his party is poised to supplant the traditional Conservative party, which he characterizes as outdated.

Nigel Farage gesticulates in the Political Thinking studio. He wears a dark navy suit with a blush pink shirt and a violet tie.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage

In recent months, several high-profile Conservatives, including Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick, Danny Kruger, and former chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, have defected to Reform UK.

Notably, Farage's party now boasts a greater number of former cabinet members from Liz Truss's administration than Kemi Badenoch's current shadow cabinet.

When questioned by Nick Robinson on Radio 4's Political Thinking, Farage downplayed the significance of Conservative MPs joining Reform UK, suggesting it was a natural consequence of the party's appeal.

Farage predicts that the upcoming Scottish, Welsh, and English council elections in May will mark a significant decline in support for the two major parties in British politics, ultimately leading to the demise of the Tories as a national force.

According to Farage, Reform UK represents a revitalized center-right movement, bringing a renewed sense of energy and passion to the political landscape.

Following Robert Jenrick's defection in mid-January, Farage hinted at an imminent defection from the Labour party, sparking speculation about potential new recruits.

One month later, Farage reiterated his expectation of multiple Labour defections to Reform UK, although he declined to provide a specific timeline.

He cautioned that such developments often unfold gradually, saying, "I haven't got a magic wand. Things don't always happen immediately, but it will happen."

The next key electoral test for Reform UK will be the Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester, scheduled for Thursday, 26 February, where Farage hopes his candidate, Matthew Goodwin, can secure the party's ninth parliamentary seat.

During the campaign, Goodwin sparked controversy by suggesting that some UK-born individuals from minority ethnic backgrounds may not necessarily identify as British, prompting questions about the definition of Britishness.

When asked to clarify his stance on the issue, Farage proposed that the true test of British identity lies in an individual's instinctive response to the question of their nationality.

According to Farage, one must instinctively identify as British to be considered part of the national community, saying, "You've got to instinctively respond 'I'm British' to be part of it."

Farage framed nationality as an extension of familial identity, emphasizing the importance of shared values and priorities.

He argued that Reform UK's vision of Britishness is inclusive, citing the party's performance in the 2024 general election, where it allegedly garnered more votes from the Black, Asian, and minority Ethnic community than the Liberal Democrats.

Farage attributed the erosion of British identity to a "Marxist… poisoning of the minds," criticizing the teaching of "twisted interpretations" of British history in schools and universities.

He expressed concern that some individuals in the UK have been indoctrinated to harbor negative feelings towards their country, saying, "I think the concern and the worry is there are a lot of people here who have been brought up to actually loathe the country."

Farage also expressed support for Manchester United co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe, who recently sparked controversy by suggesting that the UK had been "colonised by immigrants."

Although Sir Jim apologized for any offense caused by his remarks, which were criticized by the prime minister, Farage defended the sentiment behind the comment, saying it was "accurate and right" if one disregards the term "colonise."

Farage cited east London, where signs in foreign languages are common, as an example of how mass migration has led to the transformation of certain areas, making them "unrecognisable" and ultimately harming the country.

The Reform UK leader contended that Sir Jim's comments, though provocative, highlighted the need for an open debate on the impact of immigration.

A Labour spokesperson responded by highlighting the significant number of former Conservative MPs and councillors who have joined Reform UK, questioning the party's potential impact on public services.

The spokesperson argued that the presence of former Tories in Reform UK's ranks raises concerns about the party's intentions, saying, "You simply can't trust them" due to their past records.

The BBC has reached out to the Conservative party for comment on the developments.

A comprehensive list of candidates for the Gorton and Denton by-election can be found on the BBC's website.

To stay informed about the latest political developments, readers can sign up for the Politics Essential newsletter, which provides in-depth analysis and insights from across the UK, delivered directly to their inbox every weekday.

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UK Braces for Cold Snap with Snow and Ice Alerts Expected

According to Helen Willetts, a significant drop in temperature is expected this weekend, leading to notably colder conditions.

A snow-covered peak in Glenmore, Scotland, was visible in the February sunshine, a rare sight after a prolonged period of gloomy weather.

The Met Office has issued two yellow weather warnings for snow and ice, effective across Scotland and northern England, as a mass of Arctic air prepares to move into the region.

Temperatures are expected to drop significantly overnight, bringing the first widespread frost of the month to the UK by Friday.

This shift in the weather pattern marks a notable change from the record-breaking wet and dreary conditions that have persisted for weeks, characterized by a "blocked" weather system.

In a welcome development, the city of Aberdeen experienced its first glimpse of sunshine in three weeks on Thursday, signaling a potential end to the prolonged period of gloom.

Areas under Met Office yellow warnings for snow and ice have been identified, with specific regions at risk of hazardous conditions.

A yellow warning is in effect for Scotland, with snow and ice expected to impact the region overnight on Thursday and into Friday, potentially resulting in a few centimeters of snow on lower-lying roads by morning.

Elevations above 300 meters may see snowfall amounts ranging from 2 to 5 centimeters, with localized accumulations of up to 10 centimeters possible.

In addition to snow, icy conditions will also pose a hazard, particularly on untreated surfaces.

A second yellow warning has been issued for northern England and the north Midlands, where snow is expected to fall at lower elevations, although it is unlikely to settle below 200 meters; higher areas may see 2 to 5 centimeters of snow, with some locations potentially receiving up to 10 centimeters.

The combination of snow and ice is likely to cause disruptions on routes across the Pennines, as well as in Derbyshire and Cumbria, with treacherous conditions anticipated on untreated roads and pavements due to plummeting temperatures.

Saturday is expected to begin with cold and frosty conditions, but the entire UK can expect to see some sunshine, making it the driest day in a while.

However, the risk of snow returns on Saturday night and Sunday, potentially affecting a wide area, including lower-lying regions; the BBC Weather website and app will provide the latest updates and forecasts.

The BBC Weather website and app also offer hourly forecasts for specific locations, allowing users to stay informed about local conditions.

Guidance on driving safely in snowy and icy conditions is available, emphasizing the importance of caution and preparedness.

Tips on caring for pets, including dogs and cats, during cold weather are also available, highlighting the need for extra attention and protection.

Aberdeen's prolonged period of cloudy skies finally began to clear on Thursday, with the sun making a brief appearance.

The city of Aberdeen, located in north-east Scotland, has experienced an unusually long period of wet and grey weather, with the sun hidden behind clouds for an extended period.

On Thursday, the sun finally broke through the clouds between 15:00 and 16:00, marking a welcome return to the city's skies after a prolonged period of gloom.

Although the sun's appearance was brief, lasting only around 30 minutes, it marked the end of the record-breaking cloud cover that had persisted over the city.

Surrounding areas in north-east Scotland may have also caught a glimpse of blue sky on Thursday, but it is expected that Friday will bring more widespread sunshine, breaking the cycle of gloomy weather.

Across England, 75 flood warnings remain in place, with the Environment Agency warning of ongoing flooding from groundwater and rivers in several counties, including Dorset, Wiltshire, and Somerset.

After 21 days of gloomy weather, Aberdeen finally saw the sun on Thursday, bringing an end to the city's record-breaking period of cloud cover.

In response to the forecasted Arctic blast, the UK's Health Security Agency has issued yellow alerts for the colder weather, effective from 06:00 GMT on Friday to 08:00 GMT on Monday.

The agency warns that the cold weather may have minor impacts on health and social care services, including increased demand for healthcare and a greater risk to vulnerable individuals.

Temperatures are expected to remain below average over the weekend, gradually returning to more typical values of around 2-5C by Tuesday.

Information on how cold weather health alerts function and their significance is available, highlighting the importance of being informed and prepared.

The question of whether the UK's wetter winters and frequent flooding are becoming a permanent feature of the country's climate is being explored, with ongoing discussions about the potential long-term implications.

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